A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
